By: Jeremy Smith, Team X Analyst
For this article, I am going to give you the numbers showing why you should draft running back early if you want the best chance of winning your fantasy football season. This article is using information from a PPR, 1 QB format. I will do this in multiple ways:
- Disparity between the top tier QB, and top 20 QB (1 QB per roster+flex/backup)
- Disparity between the top tier WR, and top 40 WR (3 WR per roster+flex/backup)
- Disparity between top tier RB, and top 30 RB (2 RB per roster+flex/backup)
- Disparity between the top tier TE, and top 20 TE (1 TE per roster+flex/backup)
Let’s start with running backs. Last year, the top running back in PPR scoring was Saquon Barkley with 385.8 points. Just by waiting for the 4th ranked RB, you are missing out on 33 points with Alvin Kamara, and by waiting on the 6th running back in James Conner, you are missing out on a whopping 105 points. That disparity is huge, and makes the top five picks no brainers to be running backs. The one area you can really wait is between 9 and 13, where the disparity is only 26 points. In the top five running backs, you are missing an average of 11.6 points per running back. From 1-10, you are averaging a drop of 14 points per running back you wait on. From 1-20, an average of 10 points, and from 1-30, an average of 7.7. The total disparity between one and thirty is 233 points. With the average loss per running back so high early, this tells me you want to make sure you grab one of those top ten running backs, and ideally a top five. If you don’t get a top ten running back, it is not nearly as high a priority to draft one, as the disparity between 11 and thirty is only 78 points (3.9 points per). Total disparity between one and thirty, 233 points.
Now let’s move to WR, as this is usually the second group to come off the board, and the one usually drafted ahead of some of the top ten running backs. Tyreek Hill was the top WR with 335 points (already a 50 point drop from the top running back), and there is no huge drop off like we saw from the running back position. In going from WR1 to WR10, we are averaging 6.8 points dropped between WR. From 1-25, we are averaging a 5.92 point drop, and from 1-40, an average of 4.55 point drop. The drop in point totals per receiver only changes by 2 points, where the running back position changed by over 6 points from its high of 14, to its’ low of 7.7. If I take the top back and 20th ranked receiver (Julian Edelman), I will get a total of 592 points, where if I take the top receiver and 20th running back (Jordan Howard), I would get a total of 514 points. Let’s look at this from the fifth pick perspective. If I can take the fifth running back, and 10th WR, I would get a total of 593 points, whereas even if I got the top WR at pick 5, and the 10th best RB at 15, I would only get a total of 577 points. Total disparity between one and forty, 181 points.
Third, let’s move to QB, who most consensus say to wait on as long as possible, but always seem to have 1-2 come off the board early. Last year shows us that there is a large disparity between the top QB, but this seems to be a fluke, as I do not see Mahomes repeating this kind of season (417 points). The next highest QB was only at 349 points. If we take Mahomes out, as he is definitely an outlier, the disparity between QB 2 and 10 was only 64 points (7 point drop per) with no huge drop off between any 2. The difference between 10 and 20, 73 points, or a 7.3 point drop per. Even if you look at QB 20-30, we are only seeing another 70 point drop, or 7 points per. This tells me that QB play is very consistent and you will see an average drop consistent throughout all starters. However, you will notice that the drop per QB is higher than the drop per WR. The total disparity between QB 2 and 20 was 133 points, barely more than the disparity between RB 1 and 6. WAIT TO DRAFT YOUR QB IN SINGLE QB LEAGUES.
Lastly, we will look at TE, who will give running backs a “run” for their money on highest priority. The top TE last year (Kelce) scored 294.6 points and there are very large drop-offs as the tenth rated TE only scored 133 (a 16 point drop per tight end drafted).TE 20 scored only 90 points, a drop of 10 per tight end for the top 20. Based on this, TE is actually the highest value picks to get a top tier player. However, in most drafts TE will not come off the board until the end of the first, or early second round. Travis Kelce’s current ADP is in the middle of the second round right now. If the top 10 RB are gone, you should definitely look at TE as your next priority. If you can get the 5th best RB, and top TE, you would have actually scored 621 points and this is definitely possible if you pick in the 5 range. Another point to consider that makes TE riskier than running back, six of the top 10 ADP TE last year did not actually finish in the top 10, compared to RB which had 6 of the top 10 actually finish top 10, and that even includes Bell, who didn’t play at all, and Cook who only played part of the year.
In conclusion, based on the average drop in waiting on a position, TE is the most important position with an average drop of 10 points for the top 20. RB is second with an average drop of 7.7 for the top 30, QB 3rd with an average drop of 7 for the top 20, and WR last with an average drop of only 4.55 for the top 40. However, looking at the large drop-off and large disparity in running backs, the higher success rate/consistency of running backs, and the fact that TE ADP is much lower, running backs should be your first priority to keep/draft in round 1 of your fantasy draft if you want to win this year.
Team X Scouting 